Charity Game Closed

Not a successful run. Again. Closed indefinitely.

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Determination 4 (Simplicity)

Before defining a "decision" in the context of a deterministic system, I want to talk about simplicity.

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Determinism 3

I understand why quantum mechanics always comes up in these discussions. It makes people think of "randomness", which seems to be an alternative to a deterministic view of the universe.

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Determinism 2

Follow the clearly defined rules to find the next box. That is determinism. That is all it is.

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Detour of a Detour: Determinism 1

This is a related topic.

What is a deterministic system? Why is it important to have a solid definition of a deterministic system?

Or: is there anything to be gained from discussing determinism vs other views of how this universe might function?

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A Bayesian Detour 8

After this process was sufficiently well developed, you might look at your new evolved scientist. It's quite possible you wouldn't understand the purpose for practically any of the new code. But what this agent would have developed was newer, better priors for starting out in this simulated game-style world. They would have evolved with priors that tended to work in their previous situation.

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A Bayesian Detour 7

This is, I think, one of the most important thought experiments a person can do.

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A Bayesian Detour 6

We're getting closer to understand this WTF result.

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A Bayesian Detour 5

You can say, "I don't know anything about A, B, or C!"

You can say that, but it is very often not true. Just a figure of speech. You know some things about the weight of dead meat. No negative numbers. No numbers that are most easily written in scientific notation. I can say that I don't know anything about the weight of a butchered and dressed ox. Except that I do.

It will weigh more than a person. You know that. I know that.

It will weight less than the living beast.

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A Bayesian Detour 4

The dressed ox weighed in at 1197 pounds.

The mean guess of the 800 or so participants was 1196 pounds.

A one pound difference. Essentially a perfect guess.

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